FUTURE – FACT OR FICTION?
This week features a guest post from a friend whom I met over a decade ago in Mexico at an RV campground. We have kept in touch over the years and I receive his periodic newsletters chock a block full of good information. He does the research and puts it together in his posts. In reading this, it reminded me of Daniel Moynihan’s quote, probably from the Joseph McCarthy era. “You are entitled to your own opinion, Sir, You are not entitled to your own facts.” Herewith:
“A few days ago we went to the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral. We were reminded of all that has happened during our lifetime as far as getting man into space. Way back in the 60s we watched rocket after rocket go up in flames. Then a satellite orbited. Then a monkey. Then a dog. Then a man. Go to the Moon? Are you crazy? Then they did it! 5 TIMES! Space shuttles? 5 of them! 135 missions! Bring them back. Put them on the back of a 747 to transport them – we saw one ourselves. Now the rockets are launching several times a week – and they are coming back and being re-used. And there is an International Space Station orbiting for years now with regularly changing crews and resupply with crews breaking records for days up there – women even! Satellites all over the place doing all kinds of stuff we would never believe. Dish TV! Who would have believed it! What next? Who knows what Starlink is?
” Well there are a great many challenges being addressed right down here on earth. Based on my experience over the last 78 years the challenges will be met – and then some. I am old enough to have seen jets take over from propeller planes. Back in the 90s – not that long ago really – I got into video and video editing. Big cameras with big batteries that didn’t last very long. We recorded to tape. Had to edit tape to tape. Then there were floppy disks. And hard drives that crashed if you looked at them the wrong way. A hard drive back then cost about $1,000 per GB (giga byte). I just looked at Amazon for hard drives – $45 for 1TB – $50 for 2TB – $110 for 5TB (TB is a terra byte or 1,000 giga bytes – I think – it’s a lot) – and they do not crash. Who can forget flash/thumb drives? And now you can get a microSD card of 512GB for around $25 – a microSD is about the size of a pinky finger nail. How the heck do they do that? The batteries got smaller and lasted longer. I had Nickel-cadmium (NiCd), Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH), Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion), and now Lithium-Polymer (Li-Pol) batteries over the years. Technology keeps moving on. My interest was underwater video along with SCUBA diving. First batteries would not last one dive – less than an hour. Then we got batteries that might last two dives. Then batteries that lasted several days of diving. Things just kept getting better and better. Technology keeps moving forward. There is no stopping it. So why why why do people not believe we can move away from fossil fuel? Whatever this country puts it’s mind to can be done. It might take a few years but the USA always gets there. That is what makes this country great. Denying and moving backward does not make us great. You cannot say it can’t be done and achieve greatness. There are those in this country who still refuse to move forward into the inevitable future. Deniers do not make the US great. Should our government invest? We built the Interstate System of highways and the economic benefits have been immeasurable. To be great our government must invest. Investing means jobs and money! But then we would have to pay taxes! Heaven forbid! Instead we cut taxes and go trillions into debt – paying over $500 billion a year in interest on that debt. Where did these leaders we have go to school? Somewhere they don’t teach basic math? Voters don’t want to pay taxes so those in office cut to get votes. Country going broke. In debt up to our ears. Bridges falling. Roads crumbling. Nero fiddled while Rome burned. What does cutting taxes accomplish? Only thing I have ever seen is the rich just keep getting richer while the rest of us pay the bills.
“MISINFORMATION! Many people do not seem to know there is an industrial revolution going on in the USA. Manufacturing facilities are being built or re-built all over the USA. Jobs are being created by the thousands. There are many nay sayers. But it is happening. Every auto manufacturer in the world is racing to build the next latest and greatest electric vehicle (EV). Almost all auto manufacturers will be building EVs in the USA. There are also quite a few battery manufacturers building new plants in the USA to not only build batteries for EVs but batteries to store energy produced by wind and solar for when the Sun don’t shine and the wind don’t blow. All of this will require more and more semi conductors by the billions so billions of $$$ are being invested in these types of plants as well. And new plants are being built to produce components for both onshore and offshore wind turbines as well as new plants to build solar panels for both energy companies and for private residences. All of this means jobs – and money money money. Why don’t more people know about all of this? Everyday I read articles online about new discoveries and new technology and new ideas that are going to change the world as we know it. This is happening. And of course there are protests. Wind projects on the east coast are being blamed for whales dying – but these projects haven’t even started yet so how could they be killing whales when they don’t even exist yet? Claims are made that wind blades kill birds without mentioning the statistics of how fossil pollution is killing all living things. So what can we do? Read! Research! Find facts! Below I put in a few article excerpts from my massive collection of articles about all of this. This is just the tip of the iceberg of articles I have saved for the past couple years of daily reading facts. If you are interested you can click the links to learn more about all of this. Feel free to ask me questions. By the way – China leads the world in renewable energy production as well as EV manufacturing – but no cars from China are sold in the US market. Europe is also way ahead of the US in renewable energy production. But the US is poised to make big leaps if people get on board and learn the truth…………………..B
“[My inspiration for this email] >>>>>>> Trump takes aim at EV industry during speech to Michigan Republicans
‘Biden is a catastrophe for Michigan and his environmental extremism is heartless and disloyal and horrible for the American worker and you’re starting to see it,” Trump said in a keynote address to Oakland County Republicans in Michigan on Sunday.
‘Driven by his ridiculous regulations, electric cars will kill more than half of U.S. auto jobs and decimate the suppliers that they decimated already — decimate the suppliers and it’s going to decimate your jobs and it’s going to decimate more than anybody else, the state of Michigan,” he added. “It’s is going to be decimation it’s going to be at a level that that people can’t even imagine.”
‘The state of Michigan is going to be decimation,” he added. “It’s going to be at a level that that people can’t even imagine.”
‘And it’s happening right here in Michigan,” he added. “And this had nothing to do with the Democrats. They’re going to end it. They want every car to be all electric, except you don’t make all electric cars too much. You know who does — China.”
“Bringing Manufacturing Jobs & Supply Chains Home
Michigan a Top State for Electric Vehicle & Battery Investments, Bringing Home $16.6 Billion, Creating 16,300 Good-Paying Jobs
March 14, 2023
Since Governor Whitmer took office, Michigan has created over 35,000 auto jobs. Investments include:
May 2019: Stellantis announced the first new plant in Detroit in nearly 30 years, creating 6,000 jobs.
December 2019: Ford announced a $1.45 billion investment creating 3,000 jobs to help produce the first-ever electric F-150.
October 2020: GM announced a $2.2 billion investment to build Factory Zero creating 2,000 jobs.
January 2022: General Motors announced a $7 billion investment—the largest in company history—creating 4,000 jobs and retaining 1,000 jobs, to convert Orion Township assembly plant to build full-size electric vehicle pickups and build Ultium’s third U.S. battery plant in Lansing.
March 2022: LG Energy Solution announced a $1.7 billion expansion creating 1,200 jobs in Holland manufacturing batteries.
June 2022: Ford Motor Company announced an investment of $2 billion, creating more than 3,200 jobs in plants across Michigan to support electric vehicle manufacturing growth and secure internal combustion engine portfolio in the state.
June 2022: Canadian electric vehicle charging network operator FLO announced an investment of $3 million for the company’s first-ever U.S. manufacturing facility in Auburn Hills.
October 2022: Michigan-based Our Next Energy announced a $1.6 billion investment to establish its first cell and electric vehicle battery pack gigafactory in Van Buren Township, creating up to 2,112 jobs.
October 2022: Gotion announced a $2.36 billion investment for a new manufacturing facility in Big Rapids, creating up to 2,350 jobs.
January 2023: Ford announced a $3.5 billion investment, creating 2,500 good-paying jobs, in a new EV battery manufacturing facility in Marshall.
FORD’S PLAN TO BUILD NEW, ULTRA-EFFICIENT BATTERIES IN THE US MEANS EVS WILL BE GETTING MUCH, MUCH CHEAPER: ‘THIS IS A BIG DEAL’
The announcement comes just after Ford won the 2023 Truck of the Year for its electric truck.
https://www.thecooldown.com/green-tech/lithium-iron-phosphate-batteries-ford-factory/
In February, Ford announced that it will build a factory in Michigan to produce affordable lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for its electric vehicles, per the MIT Technology Review.
Most lithium batteries use additional metals, like nickel and cobalt, to help them store energy. But most of these metals are rare and expensive. LFP batteries use ordinary iron instead — a much more affordable alternative. According to MIT, batteries of this type are about 20% cheaper on average.
“Expansion Of EV Battery Manufacturing Capacity In North America Amazes
By 2030, the output is expected to increase nearly 20 times, compared to 2021.
https://insideevs.com/news/654889/ev-battery-manufacturing-capacity-north-america-2030/
North America will see an unprecedented expansion of the EV battery manufacturing capacity this decade in order to support the upcoming massive shift toward electric cars.
The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Vehicle Technologies Office reports that within roughly ten years (between 2021 and 2030), the total battery manufacturing capacity will increase nearly 20 times.
According to the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), North America’s battery manufacturing capacity in 2021 was about 55 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year and it has been pretty flat since 2018 (51 GWh/year), when Tesla launched its Gigafactory in Nevada.
Considering the announced battery plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico (through November 2022), the volume is expected to increase to 346 GWh/year in 2024, and exceed 800 GWh/year in 2025, reaching nearly 998 GWh/year by 2030.
Those numbers might actually be higher if someone would announces additional battery plants in North America.
The growth from 55 GWh/year in 2021 to nearly 1,000 GWh/year (or 1 TWh) in 2030 is quite amazing. According to the report, by 2030, the industry should be capable of supporting batteries for 10-13 million all-electric vehicles annually (assuming 77-100 kWh per vehicle on average).
Georgia, Kentucky, and Michigan are going to dominate electric vehicle battery manufacturing in the United States by 2030.
Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee will also be key players.
This EV battery manufacturing capacity will support the manufacturing of between 10 and 13 million all-electric vehicles per year, putting the U.S. in position to be a global EV competitor.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/05/map-which-states-will-build-the-most-ev-batteries-in-2030.html
m “Automakers Are Adding Electric Vehicles to Their Lineups. Here’s What’s Coming.
Updated March 10, 2023
To help out, here’s our rundown of each manufacturer’s EV production plans for the years ahead.
American Honda Motor Co. • BMW North America • Ford Motor Company • General Motors • Hyundai Motor Company • Jaguar Land Rover Limited • Kia Motors America • Mazda Motor Company • Mercedes-Benz USA • Mitsubishi Motors North America • Nissan North America • Stellantis North America • Subaru of America • Tesla Motors • Toyota Motor Sales • Volkswagen Group of America • Volvo Group North America [Click the link to see what each company is doing – too much to put here]
Made in the USA: Bright future for electric vehicle jobs
https://www.edf.org/article/made-usa-bright-future-electric-vehicle-jobs
Since the passage of the Infrastructure Law, auto manufacturers’ new investment announcements across the U.S. total $88 billion.
U.S. Races Ahead in EV Manufacturing Investments
Since Biden took office, manufacturers have quadrupled their announced electric vehicle manufacturing and battery investments in the U.S. to $210 billion, more than any other country in the world.
https://www.nrdc.org/bio/simon-mui/us-races-ahead-ev-manufacturing-investments
After years in which China dominated electric vehicle manufacturing, this new data shows a dramatic turnabout: The U.S. is now on track to attract nearly a quarter of all announced global EV investments, second only to Europe.
In addition, industry is seeing the unprecedented commitment of the federal government in this global EV race with President Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Collectively, the two laws make approximately $245 billion of federal investments available for electric vehicles, batteries, and charging stations, according to Atlas. Manufacturers are also responding to the administration’s commitment to strong clean car and clean truck standards, which will lock in progress on clean vehicles in line with what manufacturers are already seeing in Europe and China.
Almost overnight, the U.S. is now poised to become a global leader in innovative, cleaner and cost-effective electric vehicle manufacturing. These record investments in a new, cleaner future can help boost the economy, create jobs in communities across the country, and help provide a cleaner and more affordable way of moving people and goods. Let’s get to work!
“Turning America Into A Solar Manufacturing Powerhouse
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/31/turning-america-into-a-solar-manufacturing-powerhouse/
Already, dozens of companies throughout the solar supply chain have made more than 40 domestic manufacturing announcements valued at more than $13 billion. To date, companies have announced 47 gigawatts (GW) of module manufacturing capacity, and well over 100 gigawatt-hours of battery manufacturing. Between solar components, power electronics, and battery storage, America’s solar and storage supply chain is set to add over 437 GW/GWh of new manufacturing capacity if proposed announcements and expansions come to fruition.
As domestic module manufacturing expands, demand for American-made upstream components like cells, wafers and ingots will grow along with it. Already, Enel, Qcells, and Silfab have announced efforts to manufacture solar cells in the United States, and ingot wafer manufacturers are also readying efforts to launch domestic capacity.
SEIA estimates that by 2032 the solar and storage manufacturing workforce will grow to 115,000 Americans and lead to more than 507,000 jobs across the entire industry.
SEIA estimates that within 3-5 years, domestic manufacturing capacity will reach critical mass, although many factories and facilities will open before that.
In 2021, SEIA’s goal to create 50 GW of domestic production capacity by 2030 seemed farfetched, but now, that goal is within reach. With the right policies and renewed certainty in the marketplace, the United States is on its way to becoming the most competitive and collaborative solar and storage industry in the world.
“A new era of made-in-USA solar
There are both challenges and benefits to boosting solar manufacturing in America. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 includes a host of measures to support the production of US renewable energy technologies and could foster a new era for made-in-America solar.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/09/20/a-new-era-of-made-in-usa-solar/
Qcells to invest $2.5B in Georgia solar panel production facility
Biden wants to build a homemade renewable energy sector.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/01/11/solar-qcell-hanwha-biden-georgia/3591673449604/
Billed as the largest investment of its kind in U.S. history, Qcells announced it would invest billions in Georgia to create a “complete solar supply chain in the United States.”
Qcells said it would break ground soon on a facility that’s expected to create nearly 2,500 new jobs in Georgia.
“US Offshore wind huge potential
Currently, 120,000 Americans are working in the wind industry. The Departments of Energy, Interior and Commerce U.S. wants to expand offshore wind capacity to 30 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. This can generate 83,000 new jobs and unlock billions of dollars in investment in the coming years.
https://www.airswift.com/blog/offshore-wind-energy-projects-usa
These are the top 5 projects in the sector. Click in the project names to jump to a summary of each.
Vineyard Wind 1
Ocean Wind
South Fork
Revolution Wind
Atlantic Shores
The wind is now America’s top renewable electricity source, and it is expanding.
There are 20 offshore wind projects slated for the next 5 years with a total value of $61bn.
Massachusetts ($14bn), New Jersey ($12bn), Maryland ($12bn), Virginia ($10bn) and New York (7bn) are the states spending the most on offshore wind power projects over the next 10 years.
Jobs in demand and the clean energy market in the USA
Over 443,000 Americans across all 50 states have direct clean energy jobs; by 2030, there could be over 1 million jobs.
Wind technicians and solar installers have been the fastest-growing jobs in the U.S. for years.
A new generation of professionals can be required due to technological advances. But there are also some transferable skills, especially from Oil & Gas, which can give access to the offshore wind sector.
Currently, there is a lot of demand for the following roles and skillsets.
Construction Engineer
Offshore Installation Manager
Cable Design Engineer
Cable Systems Engineer
Project Manager
Commissioning Manager
List of offshore wind farms in the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_offshore_wind_farms_in_the_United_States
Long Beach, Calif., unveils plans for biggest wind turbine facility at any US seaport
How many turbines are contained in the U.S. Wind Turbine Database?
As of January 2022, the U.S. Wind Turbine Database (USWTDB) contains more than 70,800 turbines. These turbines have all been constructed since 1980 in approximately 1,500 wind power projects spanning at least 44 states (plus Puerto Rico and Guam).
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-many-turbines-are-contained-us-wind-turbine-database
Located on a 3 million square foot site, CS Wind America is the world’s largest tower production facility. As all the global customers are in the USA, it plays a significant role in promoting the growth of CS Wind by maximizing the US market share through leveraging price and quality competitiveness.
100 Tower Road, Pueblo, CO
https://www.cswind.com/en/company_information/global_network/
Established in 2006, CS WIND Corporation has grown as world no. 1 Wind tower manufacturer. The tower manufacturing plant in Pueblo is currently the largest in the world.
https://madeinpuebloco.com/tour/cswind/
VESTAS
https://us.vestas.com/en-us/manufacturing
USA wind turbine nacelles factory in Brighton, CO
Fully operational since 2010, the Nacelles Factory in Brighton proudly manufactures nacelles and hubs for wind turbines in 265,000 square feet of building space.
Blades Factory – Windsor, CO
The Blades Factory in Windsor produces blades for the 2 MW wind turbines – specifically the V110 and V120 turbines – in our 666,000 square feet of building space on 161 acres of land.
Vestas plans New York blade factory as offshore wind giants target state
The proposed blade factory would be built in the capital region of New York state – near Albany – and could provide 600 direct jobs, plus almost 1,000 additional construction and development jobs if it comes to fruition, Vestas claimed.
“Supply Chain Road Map for Offshore Wind Energy in the United States
An NREL-led study evaluated how the U.S. supply chain can evolve to support the national offshore wind target and position the industry for sustainable growth beyond 2030.
https://www.nrel.gov/wind/offshore-supply-chain-road-map.html
Investments in Manufacturing Facilities Needed To Establish a Supply Chain by 2030
$3.5 billion Wind turbines
$1.3 billion Substructures
$1.8 billion Electrical components
$3.5 billion Installation vessels
$8 billion Ports
$3 billion Steel plates
$1.3 billion Other components
Offshore wind farm proposed for Gulf of Mexico near Galveston could power 2.3 million homes
Two proposed wind farms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts would join offshore oil drilling rigs in the gulf as the Biden administration tries to boost the country’s clean energy supply.
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/22/texas-gulf-of-mexico-wind-farm/
“Wind power facts
Today more than 70,000 wind turbines across the country are generating clean, reliable power. Wind power capacity totals 146 GW, making it the fourth-largest source of electricity generation capacity in the country. This is enough wind power to serve the equivalent of 46 million American homes.
https://cleanpower.org/facts/wind-power/
Wind’s cost has declined by 47% over the last decade, with improved technology and U.S.-based manufacturing making it competitive with other energy sources and the cheapest source of new electricity in many parts of the country.
“US Postal Service commits to buying 100% electric trucks by 2026
https://electrek.co/2022/12/20/us-postal-service-commits-to-buying-100-electric-trucks-by-2026/
The USPS announced in a press release that it expects to acquire at least 66,000 battery electric delivery vehicles from defense contractor Oshkosh as part of its 106,000 vehicle acquisition plan for deliveries between now and 2028. Further, 21,000 additional commercial off-the-shelf vehicles are also expected to be battery electric.
The Electric Vehicle Megatrend Is Just Revving Up
Here’s how to play the EV revolution.
https://investorplace.com/market360/2023/03/the-electric-vehicle-megatrend/
And General Motors isn’t merely talking the talk. The automaker has linked up with LG Energy Solutions to build a massive EV battery plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee. At same site, GM has also launched production on the all-electric Cadillac Lyriq.
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), the No. 1 global automaker by several measures, is on track to start producing EVs in the U.S. as soon as 2025…
Ford Motor Co. (F) is spending $11.4 billion to build four EV sites in Kentucky and Tennessee, including a site called Blue Oval City… Ford’s first all-new production plant since 1969.
And Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (HMC) plans to set up a dedicated EV division – specifically to debut 30 EVs by 2030 and to increase “to a production volume of more than 2 million EVs per year by the same time,” according to TechCrunch.
My team and I trekked to the top of Lookout Mountain on a rather gray day, but the view was stunning and expansive.
From that mountaintop, you can see seven U.S. states: Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, and both Carolinas.
And in each of these states – especially in Kentucky and Tennessee – there’s a new economic “supercluster” of innovation and investment taking shape.
In fact, in the 300 square miles surrounding that mountain…
You’ll find no fewer than 28 different companies, each dedicated to building out the future for electric vehicles and the batteries that power them.
Collectively, they’re investing billions of dollars in kickstarting a new era of American ingenuity and prosperity – something I call “Made in America, 2.0.”
“What Is The Best Way To Make Electricity?
https://www.freeingenergy.com/best-way-to-make-generate-electricity/
Behind all the ideology and rhetoric of energy choices, most of the decisions actually come down to costs. The power industry even has a way to compare the cost of fuel-based and fuel-free electricity on an apples-to-apples basis – it’s called the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). This approach divides the lifetime costs to build, operate, and fuel a power plant by the total amount of electricity generated over that time. The LCOE metric is used by the U.S. Government, investment banks and just about everyone else. Their numbers don’t match perfectly but they generally agree – solar and wind are the cheapest with nuclear and coal being the most expensive.
Energy Fact – Solar, wind, and nat gas are, by far, the cheapest ways to generate electricity
The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for all the major sources of electricity as of 2020.
https://www.freeingenergy.com/facts/lcoe-cost-comparison-solar-nuclear-wind-g108/
Source from FE Master Database pivote table (see FEP Data Pivot – All LCOE 2020)
2020 – Type of Plant cents per kwh
Wind – Onshore 3.2
Solar PV 3.3
Natural Gas – Combined Cycle 4.1
Hydropower 5.1
Geothermal 5.4
Wind – Offshore 8.7
Coal 9.1
Nuclear 9.9
Biomass 10.1
Thermal Solar 10.6
Natural Gas – Combustion 11.2
Coal, oil, and gas are renewable, if we are willing to wait millions of years for them.